JPM 2026: What We Heard and What It Means for the Year Ahead

Like many, but not as many as in past years, we attended the JP Morgan Global Healthcare Conference in San Francisco this week. Here’s our take on the most common conversations at the conference and some thoughts about what’s to come in 2026.

Crowds down, productivity up. Have we finally reached JPM nirvana?
We, and most everyone we spoke with, felt great about both how much was accomplished and the pacing of the experience. For the first time in memory, JPM didn’t feel like being trapped in an airport during a blizzard. Maybe next year’s markup on hotel rooms will only be 3x?

Pharma finds its M&A sweet spot. Expect the trend to continue.
Transactions based on single assets valued between $1–5 billion are more productive than betting the ranch on one big deal. Reduced regulatory scrutiny, streamlined diligence, minimal integration — what’s not to like? Filling a $250 billion gap one product at a time means lots more deals to come.

Is the biotech rally real?
While this can only be answered in hindsight, our money is on this being the early stages of a sustainable rally for three primary reasons.

• Industry macros are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time.
  Dozens of takeouts versus single-digit IPOs, not to mention reorgs and wind-downs. The 2020 overhang may finally be over.

• The buyer of last resort isn’t nearly done.
  And they’ve told you what their sweet spot is — repeatedly

• In late ’25, the XBI gave about as strong of a buy signal as you can get. After years of historical underperformance (-900 bps CAGR versus the SPX since 2022), the XBI finally broke through the 105–110 level after failing several times. Historically, this has meant a lot more upside to follow.

How much of a threat is China? Formidable? Yes. Existential? Not so fast.
Twenty percent of global pipelines and nine of the top 50 research life sciences institutions are in China. They aren’t going anywhere. However, with transaction numbers up only single digits, but transaction values nearly tripling between 2023 and 2025, the idea of the U.S. being overwhelmed by high-quality, deeply discounted Chinese assets seems a bit far-fetched.

How many IPOs is the right amount?
With one deal priced in 2026, there were a lot of conversations — tinged with a bit of fear — about a potential “wave” of IPOs. Given that an average year over the past two decades sees 30–35 deals, let’s get to double digits before sounding the alarm. The market has set the bar at human data, and sponsors just lived through the pain of portfolio companies going public too soon. Perhaps the lessons of 2020–21 have been learned.

We’ll be sharing our perspective throughout the year as these themes develop. You can find our ongoing insights on the Milestone blog.